A scenario analysis was completed for the Government of New Brunswick using the ALCES landscape simulation model to explore potential future ecosystem carbon dynamics in the province. The capacity of ecosystems to sequester and store carbon in biomass and soil can be affected by fire and by land uses such as forestry, agriculture, and settlement expansion. A range of datasets and references were applied to identify relationships to track the effect of landscape dynamics and management practices on ecosystem carbon. ALCES’s use of cloud-computing made it possible to simulate ecosystem carbon dynamics across the province at high spatial resolution over a long timeframe (25 years). Landscape forecasts were derived using land cover conversion models derived from historical data using machine learning. Additional benefits of using the ALCES model were its capacity to represent key drivers (forestry, agriculture, land conversion, fire, and forest growth) and nature-based mitigation options (avoided loss of natural land cover, ecosystem restoration, forest management, and agricultural practices), and to provide map-based outputs illustrating projected changes in ecosystem carbon. By comparing the effect of a range of land management scenarios on ecosystem carbon, the analysis informed natural climate solutions suited for comprehensive net zero pathway recommendations prepared by Navius Research for the Government of New Brunswick.
